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Ray Dalio believes nations will outlaw Bitcoin if BTC price keeps rising

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Ray Dalio, the billionaire hedge fund legend, doesn’t see digital currencies like Bitcoin (BTC) succeeding the way in which different individuals do. He expects authorities to clamp down on cryptocurrencies once they see “materials” progress.

The each day chart of Bitcoin relationship again to January 1, 2020. Supply: TradingView

In the meantime, BTC has vastly outperformed Bridgewater year-to-date. Barry Silbert, the CEO of Grayscale, a cryptocurrency funding agency with over $9 billion in property underneath administration, said:

“YTD returns: Bridgewater Pure Alpha II Fund: -18% Bitcoin: +115%.”

Bitcoin and Bridgewater can’t be immediately in contrast, in fact. The previous is a decentralized, digital forex with a market cap of $291 billion. The latter is a hedge fund that manages $148 billion in assets under management as of September 2020.

However, the distinction in efficiency reveals Bitcoin has much more risk-reward potential, significantly as its market capitalization in the present day is simply 2.36% of gold.

Different billionaire buyers present an urge for food for Bitcoin

Finally, Dalio’s skepticism in direction of digital currencies comes all the way down to the regulatory risk towards cryptocurrencies.

If cryptocurrencies see materials progress, Dalio mentioned governments would probably ramp up their efforts to limit them, although he didn’t specify at which BTC value threshold governments will begin taking direct motion. He additionally said:

“I don’t suppose digital currencies will achieve the way in which individuals hope they’d.”

Dalio’s skepticism has additionally been shared by authorities officers. U.S. President Donald Trump launched an announcement concerning Bitcoin in July 2019. On the time, he wrote on Twitter:

“Not a fan of Bitcoin and different Cryptocurrencies, which aren’t cash, and whose worth is extremely risky and based mostly on skinny air.”

Nonetheless, former U.S. President Barack Obama described Bitcoin as a “Swiss checking account,” alluding to the truth that nation-states will not be capable to totally ban one thing that is not solely international but additionally one thing that may be simply secured by people. 

Throughout a keynote on the South by Southwest competition in 2016, referring to cryptocurrencies, former president Barak Obama said:

“All people is strolling round with a Swiss checking account of their pocket.”

At its core, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer software program protocol. Governments may transfer towards proscribing the usage of cryptocurrencies by outlawing on and off-ramps into cryptocurrencies. However that might merely make anti-money laundering (AML) initiatives much less sensible as customers will merely go underground or transfer to friendlier jurisdictions.

Moreover, when cryptocurrencies transfer to the gray market and folks begin buying and selling crypto property in a peer-to-peer method, it will get tougher to crack down on illicit exercise.

As such, a powerful argument could be made that it’s not in the perfect curiosity of governments to outright ban Bitcoin.